School improvement industry providers should not be fooled by the general agreement to reauthorize the No Child Left Behind law. The left and the right are increasingly aligned against the middle, and both extremes favor changes that will make the market less attractive. The Bush Administration’s power to influence Republican legislators is limited and continues to ebb. Merge the Democratic left's opposition to accountability based solely on AYP and the Republican rights' undying defense of states' rights under the banner of local control, and you have a powerful coallion to gut the very provisions that make the school improvement market possible.

The decision on NCLB II is more likely to be made by a new President, very possibly a Democrat, and a Congress controlled by that same party. So, with every hour that passes, the reauthorized law's final form moves closer to a version the extremes would prefer. The Washington Post’s July 2 editorial provides some indication on a sense that the tide is turning against the kind of NCLB II necessary for a healthy school improvement industry. The window of time to get the deal your editor thought possible in March is closing fast. 

Whether you expect your trade groups to do what they can to get the best deal now, or merely want to plan for the future, you need to pay attention to this closely. And for those of you who expect your trade group to advance your interests rather than merely report what government is doing to do to you, it's time to review what they did and did not do to shape policy thus far. What is happening was predictable, and predicted. For a baseline on these assertions, start here.

P.S. On July 2, Deputy Secretary of Education Raymond Simon offered the gestalt of the Administration's current take on policy towards NCLB II in a talk to the 15th annual Model Schools Conference. The C-SPAN recording, complete with questions and answers, is worth listening to here.