By now most observers of education reform understand that most states built their accountability regimes on the idea of average student performance, in which strong students can balance out underperformers. This perpetuates the soft bigotry of low expectations or at least a distribution of education resources that disadvantages the disadvantaged. NCLB requires states, districts and schools to demonstrate Adequate Yearly Progress towards the goal of 100% student proficiency in key subject by 201, forcing a reallocation to the students who really need it. The first approach was supported by exams like the Iowa Test of Basic Skills (ITBS), developed in 1935 and now distributed by Riverside Publishers, a part of the Houghton Mifflin Riverdeep Group.

Educators aren’t exactly overjoyed by NCLB, but two accountability regimes and two different tests are loved even less. Most state policymakers don’t want to drop the system they built. Rob Chaney of The Missoulian reports that Montana has decided to move towards the fed's system, focus on the new MontCAS (Montana Comprehensive Assessment System) developed by nonprofit Measured Progress, and drop ITBS.

“The MontCAS test that is required by NCLB is such a high-stakes test, schools are really having to focus on that,” Superintendent of Public Instruction Linda McCulloch said Tuesday. “We haven't heard from folks who wanted to keep the tests, but we have heard a lot that we're over-tested.”

One interesting business question revolves around the fact that norm-referenced tests like the ITBS are practically commodities. As such, they fit nicely into the marketing, sales and distribution strengths of the "old" education industry's large publishers. Criterion-based tests are purpose-built for a set of learning standards, and the state of that art isn’t quite a commodity. "New industry" providers like Measured Progress, with a corporate culture based on technical capacity, research and development have a competitive advantage. On the other hand, they are still building experience in administration at scale.  The future would seem to involve co-opetition rather than pure competition, and we’ll have to see how it plays out.